CIO Monthly Observations - June 2023

Markets in Review

Markets were negative for most of the month, but rose in the last few days, once the debt ceiling negotiations yielded an agreement in principle. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% in May, improving its year-to-date performance to 8.9%. However, the MSCI All Country World index fell, losing 1.3% during the month and reduced its year-to- date return to 6.8%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index dropped 1.1% during May and its year- to-date return is now down to 2.5%.

This month was driven higher by excitement over Artificial Intelligence and the belief that the Fed will stop raising interest rates because inflation continues to come down and lower by fears that the United States would default on its debt because a deal couldn’t be reached on the debt ceiling. As of this writing, an agreement on the debt ceiling has been reached, but both the House and the Senate must pass the bill before the Treasury can begin issuing net new debt.

Monthly Highlights

 

 

The CPI report showed inflationary pressures are slowly easing Artificial Intelligence is the new buzz word in corporate earnings

President Biden and Speaker McCarthy completed an agreement to suspend the debt ceiling

News in Review

Below are some stories that caught our eye this past month. To learn more, follow the links to the full article.

inflation Rate Eases to 4.9% in April

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in a month and is on track for a 4.9% annual gain. This is slightly less than the 5.0% annual rate of last month and is down from 5.5% a year ago. The Fed has raised interest rates 10 consecutive times for a total of 5 percentage points of increases in order to fight inflation, so it’s possible the Fed may take a “pause” at next month’s meeting and not raise rates again.

Big Forecast Sparks Huge Rally in All Things AI

One of the largest chipmakers in the world raised its sales estimate to $11 billion for the next quarter vs. $7.2 billion expected and said the reason was strong demand for powerful chips used in Artificial Intelligence systems. After that news was released, chipmakers and other companies in the AI industry saw their stocks jump by double-digits, showing the excitement that currently surrounds anything having to do with AI.

Speaker McCarthy Urges Support for Debt Ceiling Deal

The lead Republican in the House, Kevin McCarthy, reached an agreement with the lead Democrat, President Joe Biden, and resulted in a bill with provisions that both sides have accepted. The bill needs to pass the House of Representatives and the Senate, before the President can sign it in to law. At this point there are only a few days left before the Treasury runs out of money to pay its bills. Until it is signed into law, the Treasury is unable to issue net new debt and could lead to another financial crisis.

One Airline is Weighing Bags AND Passengers Before They Board

Most people are used to having their bags weighed before they are loaded onto an airplane, but when was the last time you were asked to step on a scale before you boarded? As you can expect, the idea is controversial, but apparently it is a voluntary program being run by Air New Zealand that only submits anonymous numbers to a central database and doesn’t show employees (or anyone else who would be watching) what your weight is.

DISCLOSURES

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advice offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, a registered investment advisor. Independent Advisor Alliance and Blackbridge Financial are separate entities from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non- financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices.

MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage- backed and asset-backed securities.

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