CIO Monthly Observations - April 2025
Monthly Observations
April 1, 2025
Stock markets fell sharply in March, with the S&P 500 down -5.8% and – dropping its year-to-date return to
-4.6% – and the MSCI All Country World index fell -4.2% during the month, which lowered its year-to-date return to -1.7%. The Bloomberg BarCap U.S. Aggregate Bond index rose slightly, up 0.05% in March, increasing its year- to-date return to 2.8%.
Concerns about tariff and trade policy have upended financial markets with investors selling stocks and buying bonds. Growth is slowing and inflation fears are returning as trade uncertainty is overwhelming much of the positive momentum in the stock market and US economy.
Monthly Highlights
The Trump administration plans to unleash a new round of tariffs on April 2nd The largest airport in Europe had to shut down after a major fire
Tariffs have already had far-reaching impacts and there are more to come
News in Review
On Wednesday April 2, so called “Liberation Day”, the United States is set to announce a slate of new tariffs on the majority of our trading partners in an attempt to reduce the $1.2 trillion trade deficit. President Trump says that for “decades…[other countries] have ripped us off” and his economic team plans to use tariffs to reshape the global world order and although prices will rise in the short term, his administration hopes to bring jobs back to America that have been lost through globalization.
Major Fire Shuts Down Heathrow Airport, Interrupting Travel and Cargo Shipments
A fire 2 miles from Heathrow disabled a critical electrical substation and shut down the busiest airport in Europe, which had 83.6 million travelers last year. 4000 tons of cargo and an estimated 200,000 passengers were stranded the first day that it closed. Firefighters eventually got the situation under control and Heathrow Airport reopened on Saturday, March 22.
Trump’s Tariffs Unleash a New Global ‘China Shock’
China spent the past decade ramping up production across the world and the recent slowdown in their economy has had ripple effects, with a quarter of a million jobs lost in Asia in the past two years. This “China Shock” has been exacerbated by the US tariffs as emerging economies are losing business, slowing production and increasing layoffs. The two biggest economies in the world (US and China) are increasingly influential and the impact to changing conditions has had far-reaching consequences.
Air Canada Sues Passenger that Tried to Expense Thousands of Dollars’ Worth of Clothes
A passenger that was flying on Air Canada spent $2400 on clothes and toiletries after his luggage was delayed 24 hours. The Canadian Transportation Agency allowed the reimbursement, which the airline is now fighting in court given the excessive nature of the expenditures and the relatively minor inconvenience of going a single day without his bags.
DISCLOSURES
Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC. Blackbridge Financial is another business name of Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. All investment advice is offered through Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC, a registered investment adviser. Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC is a separate entity from LPL Financial. The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. This newsletter was written and produced by the Independent Advisor Alliance, LLC. Content in this material is for general information only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The views stated in this letter should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. S&P 500 INDEX: The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. NASDAQ 100 INDEX: The Nasdaq 100 Index is an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index of the largest 100 non- financial stocks traded on the Nasdaq market. Unlike the S&P 500 it does not represent all major industries and may be more volatile than more broadly constructed indices. MSCI ACWI INDEX: The MSCI ACWI captures large- and mid-cap representation across 23 developed markets (DM) and 24 emerging markets (EM) countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set. Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index: The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based index of the U.S. investment-grade, fixed-rate bond market, including both government-related and corporate securities and mortgage- backed and asset-backed securities. Please note this newsletter contains hyperlinks to additional content. The information being provided is strictly as a courtesy. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of information provided by these websites.
